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Super Bowl 55

Super Bowl 55 Historic Betting Trends

Super Bowl 55 Historic Betting Trends

The matchup for Super Bowl 55 is finally set.

The Kansas City Chiefs look to become the first repeat Super Bowl Champion in 16 years, but a certain GOAT stands in their way as Tom Brady only needed 19 games as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer to get to his 10th Super Bowl and first-ever appearance from the NFC.

The Super Bowl is the second-most wagered event in sports betting, only trailing the feverish three-week period of the NCAA Tournament in dollars that will be wagered on it.

With a lot of history to look back on (this is the 55th Super Bowl after all), what do the historic trends from Super Sunday tell us in regards to Bucs vs. Chiefs?

We’ve done a lot of the work for you.

Without further ado, here are some historic betting trends for Super Bowl LV that you can consider.

Favs vs. Dogs

Fifty-four Super Bowls are in the books, and there has not been a discernible advantage in blindly riding the favorite to cover the spread en route to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

The favorite has gone on to cover the spread only 53.8% of the time (28-24-2 ATS record), but they have gone 36-18 straight up.

However, since the Super Bowl started to become less of an annual sacrifice of the AFC Champion to the Cowboys or 49ers, the underdog has started to bare more teeth.  Since the Ravens 34-7 bloodbath victory over the Giants in Super Bowl XXXV, underdogs have gone 12-7 ATS and have provided ten outright winners.

Overs vs. Unders

The moment the Chiefs were covered in AFC Champion swag, oddsmakers immediately posted the highest Super Bowl over/under total in Super Bowl history.

However, the over/under in the Super Bowl is historically split right down the middle.  The over is 27-26 (50.9%) all-time, with the last two Super Bowls both going under the total after five of the previous six Super Bowls before that went over the total.

Historically speaking, when the game total is set in the 50’s the under is 7-5 (58.3%).  Barring some enormous line movement in Super Bowl LV, we can expect this total to be above 54 points come kickoff.  The under is 1-3 all-time in all Super Bowls with a total eclipsing that number, oh and guess what?  Tom Brady was the quarterback in three of those matchups!  

AFC vs. NFC

Depending on how old you are, you may or may not remember a time in NFL history when the Super Bowl served as a de facto pinata for the NFC Champion to do whatever the hell they wanted to do against the AFC Champion (shout out Denver and Buffalo).

But times have changed a great deal since the ’80s and ‘90s free-for-all at the AFC’s expense.  Thanks to the aforementioned greatest player of all-time in Tom Brady, along with contributions from the likes of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, John Elway, and most recently Patrick Mahomes, the AFC has closed the gap in a big way in the Super Bowl almanac.

The AFC and NFC have split Super Bowl results right down the middle with a 27-27 record overall (incredible considering the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls from 1985 to 1997).  Against the spread, the NFC has a slight edge with a 27-25-2 record.

Public Favs vs. Sharp Bettors

Since this stat became a tracked statistic for bettors, there has not been a great edge here either with the perceived public favorite (the side getting above 50% of spread ticket action) has only gone 10-7 against the spread over the last 17 Super Bowl matchups.

Using Line Movement to Choose a Side

For bettors that like to look at how a line moves (i.e. moving from -3 to -3.5, +6 to +6.5, etc.) to indicate which way they want to go, over the last 15 Super Bowls this has shown a slight edge in success with teams that have the line move in their direction going 10-5 against the spread since Pittsburgh’s 21-10 win over Seattle in Super Bowl XL.

Backing Teams with Higher Win Percentages

Patriots fans can probably back this one up, but it turns out teams with the better regular-season record don’t do too hot in the Super Bowl when it comes to covering the spread in the big game.

In the last 14 Super Bowls, the team with the worse win percentage coming into Super Sunday is a staggering 13-1 against the spread.

If you wish to utilize this trend on February 7th, the Buccaneers would be the side you would back going off of this criteria.

Backing Teams with Better ATS Records

Perhaps you want to pick a side based on how each team performed against the spread throughout the season?  It’s not the worst logic one could use in formulating a pick for Super Sunday (hell it beats picking someone based on an animal eating a snack from a designated area assigned to a team), but it’s one that has not bared a great deal of fruit.

Teams with the better record against the spread are just 7-9 ATS in the last 16 Super Bowls.

But, if you must know, the Tampa Bay Bucs sit at 11-8 against the spread entering Super Bowl LV, while the Chiefs are a game under .500 at 8-10 ATS on the season.

The Gray-Haired Veteran vs. The Young Buck

If you haven’t heard the news yet, Tom Brady (at least in athletic terms) is really old.

Patrick Mahomes incidentally enough, is not old.

This will be one of the pre-Super Bowl storylines that will be hammered into the ground a million times over.

So, is it something that merits something when it comes to gambling?

The short answer is no.

In the last 17 Super Bowls, the team with the older starting quarterback is just 9-8 against the spread.

‘Touchdown Tom’ may very well net a 7th piece of jewelry come February 7, but it won’t be because he’s older than Patrick Mahomes.

Tom Brady’s Super Bowl Performances

There simply won’t be another player in the NFL like Tom Brady.

Question marks will swirl around the future of his storied NFL career should Brady position himself to retire from the game with yet another Lombardi Trophy on his resume, but that’s a storyline to worry about a few weeks from now.  From a pure betting perspective, has Tommy shown any discernible betting advantage in his Super Bowls?

Unfortunately, no.

Tom Brady is 4-5 against the spread in his previous nine Super Bowl appearances while winning outright in (duh) six of those matchups.  This will, however, be just the second time that Brady’s team is considered the underdog.

The last time that happened?  2001.  When Brady won his first-ever Super Bowl as a 14-point underdog to an explosive offensive powerhouse from the midwestern United States on a quest for their second-straight Super Bowl.

Wait a minute… that sounds familiar!

Teams Vying to Win Back-to-Back Super Bowls

The Kansas City Chiefs look to become the first repeat Super Bowl champion since Tom Brady’s Patriots accomplished the feat in 2005 (Super Bowl XXXIX), but in recent history, teams have not fared well in their attempt at running it back.

The Patriots (LII), Seahawks (XLIX), and Steelers (XLV) have each had a crack at winning back-to-back Super Bowls and each of them fell short in their efforts in doing so.

Since the last repeat champion, the defending Super Bowl champ is 0-3 straight up and against the spread in their attempt to win back-to-back titles.

One interesting thing of note, the over was 3-0 in each of these losing efforts.

Regular Season Rematches in a Super Bowl

The Chiefs and Buccaneers will meet once again after the two sides first squared off back in Week 12 when Kansas City would hold on for a 27-24 road win at Raymond James Stadium.

Now the two teams will meet once again for the biggest prize in football.

While teams meeting in the regular season, and again in the Super Bowl, was more common back in the ’80s and ’90s, it’s been much less common lately with the last time two teams met in the regular season and again in the Super Bowl coming in 2012 when the Giants would defeat the Patriots for the second time that season.

This will mark the 14th time in NFL history that a regular-season rematch occurs in the Super Bowl.  As has been the case for many of these trends, there is not an apparent edge to be found in a second matchup between teams.

Super BowlSeason ResultSB ResultATS
LV (2021)Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24TBDTBD
XLVI (2012)Giants 24, Patriots 20Giants 21, Patriots 17Underdog
XLII (2008)Patriots 38, Giants 35Giants 17, Patriots 14Underdog
XXXVI (2002)Rams 24, Patriots 17Patriots 20, Rams 17Underdog
XXXIV (2000)Titans 24, Rams 21Rams 23, Titans 16Push
XXIX (1995)49ers 38, Chargers 1549ers 49, Chargers 26Favorite
XXVIII (1994)Bills 13, Cowboys 10Cowboys 30, Bills 13Favorite
XXV (1991)Bills 17, Giants 13Giants 20, Bills 19Underdog
XXI (1987)Giants 19, Broncos 16Giants 39, Broncos 20Favorite
XX (1986)Bears 20, Patriots 7Bears 46, Patriots 10Favorite
XVIII (1984)Redskins 37, Raiders 35Raiders 38, Redskins 9Underdog
XVI (1982)49ers 21, Bengals 349ers 26, Bengals 21Favorite
XV (1981)Eagles 10, Raiders 7Raiders 27, Eagles 10Underdog
XII (1978)Cowboys 14, Broncos 6Cowboys 27, Broncos 10Favorite

Favorites are 6-6-1 against the spread in the second matchup that comes in the Super Bowl, with the lone push coming in Super Bowl XXXIV when Titans’ wide receiver Kevin Dyson was a yard short of forcing overtime, and most importantly to bettors, covering the spread.

 

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